US duties shut Indian solar plants out of their biggest export market
As China’s solar capex collapsed, India’s share of global manufacturing investment jumped. Preliminary US countervailing duties then shut the largest export market. Plant plans now need a different customer.
The Industrial Brief · Editorial · 10 September 2026 · 5 min
China accounted for most of the collapse in global solar manufacturing investment in the first half of 2026 — down 83 percent from the late-2023 peak, according to the Clean Investment Monitor. India’s share of that investment rose from 5 percent to 48 percent over four quarters. Then the US Commerce Department levied preliminary countervailing duties on Indian solar exports. The American market, for now, is closed.
A plant director in Tamil Nadu or Gujarat who sized a line for US modules now has a different bill of materials, a different certification stack and a different customer. Indian demand and the production-linked incentive are still there. Europe and the Middle East do not replace the US utility market one for one. Capacity with no buyer is inventory.
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